Google searches for “25th Amendment,” the part of the U.S. Constitution about the presidential line of succession, spiked shortly after Mr. Trump’s announcement. And legal experts have weighed in on what would happen if the president is incapacitated, or worse, come Election Day (it’s complicated).
Political betting markets moved on the news, giving Mr. Trump slightly worse odds for re-election: a 36 percent chance of winning, according to PredictIt. The sharpest move was in the odds for Mr. Pence: The vice-presidential debate scheduled for Oct. 7 has suddenly assumed much more importance. The remaining two debates between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden may be canceled or altered, with the next set for Oct. 15.
What are the policy implications? Mr. Trump’s dismissals of the severity of the virus and cavalier attitude toward the pandemic have given cover for state and local officials as they reopen their economies. Now that the president has caught the virus, it could give more support for the leaders keeping things locked down, which would put pressure on the economy in the short term. On the other hand, Mr. Trump’s diagnosis could give new urgency to negotiations over additional federal stimulus, which would be a boost to markets that have been calling for more aid after many of the initial programs expired.
Today’s DealBook Briefing was written by Andrew Ross Sorkin and Lauren Hirsch in New York, Ephrat Livni in Washington, and Michael J. de la Merced and Jason Karaian in London.